Friday

My Daily Rant.


I was watching the news the other day and waiting to see the weather forecast. I live in Florida the land of hurricanes. As I was watching the weatherman work his way through the maps and figures I had an epiphany. Weather models including hurricane forecast tracks are derived from computer models. Anyone who lives in an area where hurricanes are common knows that the models are moderately accurate up to 3 days out and become increasingly more unrealizable as the time frame increases. Well stop and think about it. Global warming predictions are also based on computer models. If we can’t make accurate predictions about phenomenon that are well studied and occurring in real time, then how can models that make climate predictions a hundred years into the future be anything but throwing darts in the dark. Weather forecasts deal with a fairly localized geographical area where Global warming predictions cover the entire planet. It seems like we are putting a lot of time, money and effort into what is essentially a guess. Just ask yourself how often the weather forecasts are accurate. Here is a quote from the national Hurricane Centers website: “Hurricane forecasters must look at all of the models' results, which frequently give widely different pictures of the future. When the models do disagree, hurricane forecasters must use their experience and judgment to decide which model is performing the best under the current conditions. Unfortunately, we are not at a point in this science where one model can reliably be used for forecasts in all the different situations that can occur given the complexity of our atmosphere.” (Emphasis added) Climatology needs to take is place with another ology, astrology. I think we should dial up the psychic network next time we want to forecast the weather or global warming.

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